At the commencement of Kenya oil production in 2021 (Ceteris Peribus), national revenues will peak at USD 2.6 billion per year with oil prices at $45/bbl and rise to more than USD 5 billion per year at $85/bbl.
The details are reviewed in a report titled , “Potential Government Revenues from Turkana Oil” Released by the Kenya Civil Society Platform for Oil and Gas.
The report which seeks to provide insights into the scale and timing of potential Kenya government revenues, national and sub-national, from the oil sector says that by current projection of 600 million barrels recoverable from Blocks 10BB and 13T in Turkana Oil fields, peak production is estimated at around 150,000 barrels of oil per day.
Kenya Civil Society Platform on Oil and Gas further indicated that the challenge at hand is how East Africa’s largest economy gets its crude to the market.
In February 2016, East Africa daily reported that Kenya was looking to export its oil by road and rail in order to speed up first oil exports.
The report fell on the background that Uganda, which was projected to be a leading partner in the Joint crude oil export pipeline had reconsidered its position and was looking to taking its pipeline southwards to Tanzanian port of Tanga.
Negotiations are still underway between both government but preliminary indications are clear that Uganda has stuck to Tanzanian route.
The decision is expected to be announced at the East Africa heads of state meeting to held in Kampala on April 23, 2016.
The report however says, Kenya will face major setbacks in oil exportation given the horrifying state of roads in the Oil-rich Turkana Region. It says a pipeline is the most viable option.
“Given the remoteness of the Turkana region, the only long-term economically viable option is a pipeline. The political, technical and financial challenges presented by the pipeline should not be underestimated,” it says
Kenya’s first drop of oil from Turkana entirely depends on a simultaneous final investment decision (FID) for the upstream oil operations yet major industrial players including Tullow oil Plc have asserted that FID in both Uganda and Kenya are dependent on a routing decision by both Nations.